The Economist: Ukrainian Flight 752

"Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo" (rustyvandura) 01/09/2020 at 18:21 • Filed to: None

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The last thing any regime would want is to “ risk(s) being cast as both reckless and incompetent.”

For Sweden > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 18:29

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The Canadian Transportation Safety Board is a great group.  The Iranians won’t be able to fool them.

NKato > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 18:30

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Which is why Iran has extended an invitation to the US to observe the investigation.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > NKato 01/09/2020 at 18:59

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Ha.  We’ll believe that when they release the FDR and CVR.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > For Sweden 01/09/2020 at 18:59

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The fact that Canada had made the claim rather than the US lent credence to the claim. I’m glad to hear you say that about the CTSB though. Based upon the preponderance of our correspondence here, I am assuming that you know what you are talking about.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/09/2020 at 19:00

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...and let me know when Elvis gets here...

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > NKato 01/09/2020 at 19:00

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I was hoping to see the US make an offer to assist.

ranwhenparked > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 19:03

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I could certainly see where their warning systems could have mistaken the plane for an incoming US counter attack and shot it down. Other countries (eg, Russia and Iraq) had already ordered their civilian aircraft out of Iranian airspace during that period as a precaution, but Ukraine probably  didn’t get the memo.

VincentMalamute-Kim > ranwhenparked 01/09/2020 at 19:08

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If the USS Vincennes is able to shoot down a Boeing airliner by mistake...

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > ranwhenparked 01/09/2020 at 19:09

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I could imagine that as well, but if you were on air defense duty 50 miles from, say, O’Hare Airport, I should think you’d have protocols in place to make certain you weren’t engaging 737s. Which is what this article says, amongst other things.

ranwhenparked > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 19:15

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The Soviets shot down a South Korean airliner that was flying where it shouldn’t have been. And there’s a decent chance the Russians were the ones that accidentally  shot down that Malaysian airliner over Ukraine back in 2014 .   In the heat of battle, with tensions on a hair trigger, shit can happen.

someassemblyrequired > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 19:20

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They’ve already offered access to the black boxes to the CTSB.  As For Sweden pointed out they are an extremely dedicated group and aren’t shy with their conclusions.

For Sweden > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 19:21

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Giving intelligence to a smaller , friendlier country is one of the classic blunders.

WilliamsSW > ranwhenparked 01/09/2020 at 19:21

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There are a shitload of obvious signs that an aircraft is an airliner. It takes some serious negligence to  shoot it down.

ranwhenparked > VincentMalamute-Kim 01/09/2020 at 19:26

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Correct, wouldn’t be the first time a civilian airliner was accidentally shot down while flying in an area with a tense military situation or straying over an area with active military operations . Iran Air 655, Korean Air 007, Malaysia MH17, TAAG 462, Aeroflot 902, Libyan Arab 112, El Al 402, and that Cathay Pacific one the ChiC oms downed in the ‘50s.

ranwhenparked > WilliamsSW 01/09/2020 at 19:29

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Exactly, serious negligence. Not the first time its happened, unfortunately, and won’t be the last, though it is fortunately rare. 

VincentMalamute-Kim > ranwhenparked 01/09/2020 at 19:31

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whew! nv m, y ou schooled me.

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 19:42

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Of course, that quote is DEFINITELY directed ONLY at Iran...

WilliamsSW > ranwhenparked 01/09/2020 at 20:07

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Yeah, it’s ridiculous that people keep making this mistake - and that foreign carriers still fly into war zones.  

ttyymmnn > VincentMalamute-Kim 01/09/2020 at 20:10

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It was an A300, but point taken. That said, Vincennes reportedly warned the Iran Air many times before launching. I’m sure the 737 crew got no warning at all. 

RangerSmith > ranwhenparked 01/09/2020 at 20:14

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“Ukraine probably didn’t get the memo.” It was literally taking off from the Tehran airport. I’m sure everyone on that plane and the Ukrainian company that owned it was ready to get the hell out of Iran.

facw > ranwhenparked 01/09/2020 at 20:22

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The Soviets shot down Korean airliners at least twice. They knew exactly what they were doing though. While I was alive when KAL 007 was shot down, it still seems quite incredible to me that anyone would ever shoot down an airliner posing no imminent threat to anyone, but the Cold War world was apparently the sort of place where some people that that was a sensible, and even necessary course of action.

Obviously if Iran really did shoot down this bird, it’s more like the Ukrainian situation, though with the difference that Iran had a lot more resources to make sure they weren’t getting the wrong target (and I guess they didn’t use them)

I’m still shocked airlines didn’t immediately ground their flights. With both this and the thing in Ukraine, it seems like people have become complacent about operating in a war zone.

RangerSmith > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 20:27

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The US isn’t credible? EVERYONE is saying that Iran shot it down. USA. Canada. Britain. Ukraine. et al.

Also, some Iranian filmed the entire thing. Here’s the video.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/09/politics/is-iran-ukraine-plane/index.html

RacinBob > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 20:52

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all you need to know https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51047006

ranwhenparked > facw 01/09/2020 at 20:54

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There was probably an element of sending a message with the Korean air flights, and also the El Al one. The Soviets and Bulgarians both made damn sure they hit the planes just as they were about to leave their territorial airspace.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > RangerSmith 01/09/2020 at 21:04

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It’s CNN so it’s fake.

I did not mean to suggest that the US isn’t credible. But a US claim that Iran had shot down the plane would be questioned by some because the  US and Iran are beefing. Canada is independent of that beef.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > RacinBob 01/09/2020 at 21:06

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Economist, BBC... Getting news from the British...

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media 01/09/2020 at 21:10

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It was. The irony was not lost on me and that's why I quoted it.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 21:12

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Hell, some seem to revel in being reckless and incompetent.

Not to be heartless, but the US “accidentally” shot down an Iranian airliner a little over 30 years ago, one only has to wonder when the next “mistake” will take place.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > facw 01/09/2020 at 21:12

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The part that makes KAL a bit murky is soviet radar was A) on high alert because of testing, and B) an air force recon plane had been setting off radar all night. That the 747 swung round was supper shitty timing that it plausible the same rc135 that had been off the coast all night.

Regarding your second point, I agree it is crazy the Ukrainian jet took off. 

facw > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 01/09/2020 at 21:17

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From what I’ve read, t he pilots who shot it down said they knew what they were shooting at, and it seems very likely their commanders did as well. Russia may well have thought the 747 was testing their air defenses, but it seems almost certain they were aware it was a passenger airliner.

ranwhenparked > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 01/09/2020 at 21:26

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The pilot did ask a couple of times for confirmation as to whether he should shoot it down, even if it left Soviet airspace and went over international waters, and was told to do it anyway (probably in the belief that the plane could quickly  circle around and return to USSR airspace, or that if it was close enough to the border, nobody would be able to really prove either way). 

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 21:27

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I’ve exceeded my economist articles.

An issue with stealth aircraft is that when their bomb doors open their radar cross section, goes from a seagull to a pickup truck. There was a special on teh B1 during the first gulf war how they had had a 30 second window, to open teh doors, release the bombs, and close them. before getting a radar lock.

It is not unbelieveable for some iranian gi, be on high alert and all of a sudden have a blimp pop up on his radar as the plane gained enough altitude.

what I haven’t seen is if there were any other aircraft leaving that night. 

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 01/09/2020 at 21:27

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T he US shootdown claimed almost twice the number of lives.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 21:31

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And I suspect the media was on that one for a good 36-48 hours before moving on.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 01/09/2020 at 21:34

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Would you like me to send you a PDF?

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 21:35

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thank you, but its ok. 

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 01/09/2020 at 21:36

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As I recall, they were on it hard and deep and for a while. I remember images on the evening news of bodies floating in a body of water and speculation whether the Iranians had faked the thing. It was also the first time I ever heard of Airbus as a manufacturer.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > For Sweden 01/09/2020 at 21:37

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Will you flesh that one out for me?

For Sweden > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 22:14

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US is the bad cop, Canada is the good cop. Classic good cop bad cop game

DipodomysDeserti > RangerSmith 01/09/2020 at 22:36

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Kind of weird that a guy was just hanging outside filming nothing in the sky on his phone. Dude doesn’t even react to it.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 22:43

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I can imagine US media harping on a fake news kind of angle, yeah.  Just can’t imagine the powers that be dwelling on a US error, especially one that claimed hundreds of lives.

RacinBob > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 23:24

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Hey, no need to pay or log in!

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 23:25

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https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31791/lets-talk-about-how-iran-could-have-shot-down-a-737-full-of-innocent-people?fbclid=IwAR1OvzMsMvzWftW-PVntAAHQtDiw0vS4-nmiC4vAOvBvxVF01a2rJ8zLZAA

turns out there had been other flights taht night. 

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > For Sweden 01/09/2020 at 23:30

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I am a little slow sometimes. Are you suggesting that US fed Canada the intel so Canada could make the charge? If so, how would that be a blunder?

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 01/09/2020 at 23:31

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News was real then.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > RacinBob 01/09/2020 at 23:32

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I like getting my news from them; they have a better idea of what's going in here than we do.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 01/09/2020 at 23:33

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The Economist article says as much. It was a flight pattern from a busy airport.

For Sweden > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 23:36

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No, but I think Iranian sources were more comfortable sharing the facts with Canada, who passed those facts along to the US.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > For Sweden 01/09/2020 at 23:43

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That strikes me as entirely plausible. Where is the blunder?

VincentMalamute-Kim > ttyymmnn 01/10/2020 at 01:27

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ah, I’ve forgotten all the details other than a US ship shot down a civilian airliner.

RangerSmith > DipodomysDeserti 01/10/2020 at 02:59

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They live in a different world. Especially with all of the rockets fired earlier that night. My thought is it was someone just hoping to catch anything on video and flip it to the news for a quick buck. I’m not sure that CNN has cited where they got the video.

RangerSmith > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/10/2020 at 03:35

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I’m going to ramble a bit here.

The reality is that Canada has its own intelligence services and knows that the plane was shot down. Trudeau has demanded answers publicly because 63 Canadians perished.

My speculation of these events is as follows. The blunder is that Iran got caught trying to goad the US into overacting and shooting first. Why? They are probably receiving promises and intelligence from Moscow.  

It appears that the United States/coalition of other countries, called their bluff on the initial volley of rockets fired into Iraq. Yet in the hours after the first rockets, Iran was still expecting the hammer to drop. Meanwhile Iran shot down a plane taking off from its own airport.

To my eyes, the Iranian government is trying to appease two masters, both Russian intelligence and the most radical factions of Islam.

For Sweden > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/10/2020 at 06:23

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It’s a movie quote

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/10/2020 at 11:56

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Unless CNN, of course.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 01/10/2020 at 12:06

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Canadian News Network

The ilk of the current POTUS are trying to sell us on the notion that a second term  is a done deal. Has been their message for three years.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/10/2020 at 16:28

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Or California News Network, or Communist News Network, or whatever wil l trigger the MAGAt s.

Hell, I opine that 45 is easily the most corrupt POTUS in history, and I think his next term is a done deal unless the Dems get their shit together stat.  The cult loves him more with each passing day, to most who voted for him in 16, he can do no wrong.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 01/10/2020 at 16:33

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Have you noticed how much cooler things have gotten around here since they banished that guy? And calling Stef to be the new mod was a nice move as well. That guy was poisoning the entire ecosystem.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/10/2020 at 17:23

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The multiple daily political bait posts got a little old, yeah. I tried not to hate the guy, but there was something going on there that got old fast . I hope not fighting here helps him, too.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 01/10/2020 at 17:34

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I’d already stepped back before he got exiled. Now, I’m easing myself back in.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/10/2020 at 21:07

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It does seem to be a more cheerful place lately, compared to the November or so era.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 01/11/2020 at 01:07

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I think there is a general fog of exhaustion in the country. I don't think anybody cares what happens to Pelosi's articles of impeachment, so thoroughly is the old order dismantled.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/11/2020 at 12:57

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I’d rather the energy used on the impeachment be used to create state level charges that will stick once this shitshow has ran its course. If there’s any justice in this land (LOL) there will be a number of prison sentences.

Trump doesn’t even gall me as much as some of the shit who ride his coattails - Perdue, DeVos, Miller, etc.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 01/11/2020 at 13:09

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He’s their marionette.

Who do you like among the flock of Dem contenders? I like Mayor Pete. I’d like to see Biden run with Pete as his VP.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/11/2020 at 14:06

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That’s a good point, remember who controls who in this mess. 45 thinks he’s some kind of dominating alpha, but he’s a puppet.

I don’t know if I like any of them per se. Biden is so establishment, he doesn’t make me feel good. Pete might be the choice.  Lately I’ve even been tolerant of Bernie.  Really, I’d be thrilled with anyone but 45.     I’ve recently had a gongshow issue dealing with my health insurance company, I’ll take whoever can put us on the path to emulating the legit first world and gives us single payer.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 01/11/2020 at 14:17

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Really, I’d be thrilled with anyone but 45.

So would I. Even Mike Pence? Yes, even Mike Pence. Even Ted Cruise? Yes, Even Ted Cruise. Even Darth Rumsfeld? Yes, even Darth Rumsfeld.

NPR has had a woman in Tehran the past two weeks and she interviewed some Iranians who all made a distinction between America and Americans.

Which of his cronies actually called the shot on the Iranian general?

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/11/2020 at 14:30

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Well, I should have said, any D. Pence is a scary figure in a way, and those others are just as despicable, in their own way. Even the lamest D isn’t as bad.

Probably look into majority shareholders of leading defense contractors to see who may have encouraged the latest skirmish.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 01/11/2020 at 14:35

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I fully assumed you meant any D. I’d take any D or (pretty much) any R. What I really despise about the whole mess is how hard Trump works at being unacceptable and then deriding his foes for finding him unacceptable. It’s nothing more than f*&#ing with people for the pure sake of doing so. Owning Libs as the order of the day. They’re playing us, and we’re playing into it.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/11/2020 at 14:44

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No D is a worse choice, although I suspect most Rs will be as bad, as the Rs aren’t the mostly respectable GOP of 70 years ago, they are now the party of Trump, largely populated by loud boors and deconstructivists.

Regarding being played, it’s almost as if this is a long-term scheme. The socio-economic malaise that contributes so much to the cult is a direct product of GOP tax and economic policy of the past 50 or so years. They created their own customer base.